Dynamics of Arctic ecosystems

Dynamics of Arctic ecosystems

Our research group seeks to achieve a general understanding of how climate change impacts spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife communities. To achieve this, we take advantage of the 'simple' trophic system, rapid climate change, and unique availability of long-term monitoring data in high-arctic Svalbard. Our research lies in the intersection between ecology, behaviour, and evolution. We develop community-level approaches implementing stochastic demographic models of key species into analyses of dynamics of communities in time and space, in order to predict how trophic interactions will modify climate change effects on ecosystems.

People in the research group

From left: Bart Peeters, Mathilde Le Moullec, Brage B. Hansen, Kate Layton-Matthews.

Who are we?

Who are we?

PI Brage Bremset Hansen

Senior Researcher (NINA) Vebjørn Veiberg

Postdoc Mathilde Le Moullec

Postdoc Bart Peeters

PhD candidate Kate Layton-Matthews

Projects

Projects

INSYNC 2018-2022 - Community dynamics in a rapidly warming high Arctic: trophic synchrony in time and space

SUSTAIN 2016-2018 - Sustainable management of renewable resources in a changing environment: an integrated approach across ecosystems

WINTERRAIN 2014-2019 - Effects of increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events on high-arctic permafrost, vegetation, wildlife and society

REINCHANGE 2015-2019 - Anthropogenic drivers of Svalbard reindeer abundane, distribution and population genetics

REINCLIM 2012-2015 - Predicting effects of climate change on Svalbard reindeer population dynamics: a mechanistic approach

Selected publications

Selected publications

Fjelldal M, Layton-Matthews K, Lee AM, Grøtan V, Loonen MJJE and Hansen BB (in press). High-arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese. Biology Letters.
Le Moullec M, Sandal L, Buchwal, Grøtan V and Hansen BB (2020). Climate synchronizes shrub growth across a high-arctic archipelago: contrasting implications of summer and winter warming. Oikos (available online).
Hansen BB, Grøtan V, Herfindal I and Lee AM (2020). The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming. Ecography (available online).
Peeters B, Le Moullec M, Raeymaekers JAM, Marquez JF, Røed KH, Pedersen ÅØ, Veiberg V, Loe LE and Hansen BB (2020). Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high-arctic ungulate meta-population. : detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift. Global Change Biology
Hansen BB, Pedersen ÅØ, Peeters B, Le Moullec M, Albon SD, Grøtan V, Herfindal I, Sæther B-E and Aanes R (2019). Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14761.
Layton-Matthews K, Hansen BB, Grøtan V, Fuglei E and Loonen MJJE (2019). Conflicting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation, density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high-arctic warming. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14773
Le Moullec M, Pedersen ÅØ, Stien A, Rosvold J and Hansen BB (2019). A century of conservation: the ongoing recovery of Svalbard reindeer. Journal of Wildlife Management. DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.21761.
Layton-Matthews K, Loonen MJJE, Hansen BB, Sæther B-E, Coste C and Grøtan V (2019). Density-dependent population dynamics of a high Arctic capital breeder, the barnacle goose. Journal of Animal Ecology 88:1191-1201.
Hansen BB, Gamelon M, Albon SD, Lee AM, Stien A, Irvine RJ, Sæther B-E, Loe LE, Ropstad E, Veiberg V & Grøtan V (2019) More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics. Nature Communications (NCOMMS-18-26911A).
Le Moullec M, Buchwal A, van der Wal R, Sandal L & Hansen BB (2019). Annual ring growth of a widespread high arctic shrub reflects past fluctuations in community‐level plant biomass. Journal of Ecology 107:436-451.
Hansen BB, Lorentzen JR, Welker JM, Varpe Ø, Aanes R, Beumer LT & Pedersen ÅØ (2019) Reindeer turning maritime: ice-locked tundra triggers changes in dietary niche utilization. Ecosphere (ECS19-0014).
Peeters B, Pedersen ÅØ, Loe LE, Isaksen I, Veiberg V, Stien A, Kohler J, Gallet J-C, Aanes R & Hansen BB (2019) Spatiotemporal patterns of rain-on-snow and basal ice in high Arctic Svalbard: detection of a climate-cryosphere regime shift. Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/aaefb3.
Karlsen SR, Anderson HB, van der Wal R & Hansen BB (2018) A new NDVI measure that overcomes data sparsity in cloud-covered regions predicts annual variation in ground-based estimates of high arctic plant productivity. Environmental Research Letters 13(2).
Le Moullec M, Pedersen ÅØ, Yoccoz NG, Aanes R, Tufto J & Hansen BB (2017) Ungulate population monitoring in an open tundra landscape: distance sampling versus total counts. Wildlife Biology.
Albon, S.D., Irvine, R.J., Halvorsen, O., Langvatn, R., Loe, L.E., Ropstad, E., Veiberg, V., van der Wal, R., Bjørkvoll, E.M., Duff, E.I., Hansen, B.B., Lee, A.M., Tveraa, T. and Stien, A. 2017. Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore. Global Change Biology 23, 1374-1389.
Peeters, B., Veiberg, V., Pedersen, Å.Ø., Stien, A., Irvine, R.J., Aanes, R., Sæther, B.-E., Strand, O. and Hansen, B.B. 2017. Climate and density dependence cause changes in adult sex ratio in a large Arctic herbivore. Ecosphere 8, e01699.
Bjørkvoll, E.M., Lee, A.M., Grøtan, V., Sæther, B.-E., Stien, A., Engen, S., Albon, S.D., Loe, L.E. and Hansen, B.B. 2016. Demographic buffering of life histories? Implications of the choice of measurement scale. Ecology 97, 40–47.
Loe LE, Hansen BB, Stien A, Albon SD, Bischof R, Carlsson A, Irvine J, Meland M, Rivrud IM, Ropstad E, Veiberg V, Mysterud A (2016). Behavioral buffering of extreme weather events in a high-Arctic herbivore. Ecosphere 7: 1-13.
Vickers H, Høgda KA, Solbø S, Karlsen SR, Tømmervik H, Aanes R & Hansen BB (2016) Changes in greening in the High Arctic - insights from a 30-year AVHRR max NDVI dataset for Svalbard. Environmental Research Letters 11:105004.
Lee, A.M., Bjørkvoll, E., Hansen, B.B., Albon, S.D., Stien, A., Sæther, B.-E., Engen, S., Veiberg, V., Loe, L.-E. and Grøtan, V. 2015. An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods. Oikos 124, 806-816
Hansen BB, Isaksen K, Benestad RE, Kohler J, Pedersen ÅØ, Loe LE, Coulson SJ, Larsen JO Varpe Ø (2014) Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic. Environmental Research Letters 9:114021.
Hansen, B.B., Grøtan, V., Aanes, R., Sæther, B.-E., Stien, A., Fuglei, E., Ims, R.A., Yoccoz, N.G. and Pedersen, Å.Ø. 2013. Climate events synchronize the dynamics of a resident vertebrate community in the High Arctic. Science 339, 313-315