The NTNU COVID-19 Modelling Taskforce has developed high-resolution modeling tools capable of identifying 

• An efficient and systematic testing regime that can reduce number of infections.
• A more efficient vaccination system allowing for faster herd immunity than vaccinating by age.
• Optimal ways of lifting restrictions while ensuring the epidemic is limited, 
• Control measures differentiating between regions and municipalities. 

Large-scale testing, or ‘screening testing', has proven to be important to deal with the covid pandemic. We have argued that saliva testing is a practical and easy way to perform simple testing and large-scale testing. After completing a pilot study among 140 students in Trondheim, saliva testing is now available in Trondheim as the only city in Norway.

The taskforce has worked closely to connect data analysis with control theory and epidemiological modeling. This has not yet led to results widely communicated.
 

Methods

The central part of our platform is a high-resolution epidemiological network model that relies on detailed demographic and statistical data that is interfaced with advanced nonlinear optimal control methodology. This is a highly transdisciplinary undertaking, combining critical knowledge from the Life Sciences, Mathematical Sciences, Engineering and Economics. 

The diagram below outlines how we perceive our role as provider of decision support information to Norwegian governmental agencies and authorities.

The dotted black lines reflect that we use the latest official Norwegian policies and reports as a base-line for our work. However, the primary use of the modelling framework is to present optimal, but still feasibility-constrained, policy regimes that follow from a set of alternative control objectives scenarios. The construction of these scenarios are guided by results from a Norwegian macroeconomic model.

Please visit this page for further documentation of our work

Team leaders of the four main pillars of the modelling framework

• NTNU Data analysis: Professor Ingelin Steinsland
• NTNU Model predictive control: Professor Thor I. Fossen
• NTNU Epidemiological network model: Professor Eivind Almaas
• NTNU Economic analysis of policy regimes: Professor Asgeir Tomasgard

If you have questions about the NTNU COVID-19 Modelling Taskforce activity beyond what you find on this website, please contact:

Trygve Brautaset, Email: trygve.brautaset@ntnu.no, Phone: +47 98 28 39 77